2012 Consensus NFL Mock Draft: Compiling Results From 158 Mocks

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Forbes' 2012 Consensus NFL Mock Draft

Update 4/24

You'll now see a new table near the bottom that shows the top 4 picks for each team.  A commenter requested it, and it gives some more insight into what each team "may" be thinking.

 

Overview

With draft season upon us, I decided to take a new look at how the 2012 NFL Draft could shape up.  Thanks to a mock draft database that I stumbled upon, and some generous Twitter followers sending in their mocks, I was able to compile 158 mock drafts in total in an effort to find a consensus mock draft.  It's worth noting that this only looks at the first round results for each mock, and only mocks dated later than April 1st were used.

 

Player Frequency at a Given Draft Spot

I decided that it would be interesting to look at a couple of different scenarios.  The first scenario slots a player into a draft spot simply based on the number of times he was selected for that spot among the 158 mocks.  For example, Andrew Luck was picked for the first spot 157 total times, while Robert Griffin III was only picked for the first spot 1 time.  Therefore, Luck emerged as the top pick.  In some cases, the player that appeared the most in a certain draft spot was already off the board, thus the player with the next highest total for that spot was selected.

Without describing all of the gorey details, here are the results.

Pick Player POS College #times
1.) Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck QB Stanford 157
2.) Washington Redskins Robert Griffin III QB Baylor 157
3.) Minnesota Vikings Matt Kalil OT USC 146
4.) Cleveland Browns Trent Richardson RB Alabama 124
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Morris Claiborne CB LSU 127
6.) St. Louis Rams Justin Blackmon WR Oklahoma State 109
7.) Jacksonville Jaguars Melvin Ingram OLB South Carolina 49
8.) Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill QB Texas A&M 124
9.) Carolina Panthers Fletcher Cox DT Mississippi State 52
10.) Buffalo Bills Riley Reiff OT Iowa 90
11.) Kansas City Chiefs Luke Kuechly LB Boston College 45
12.) Seattle Seahawks Quinton Coples DE North Carolina 41
13.) Arizona Cardinals David DeCastro OG Stanford 33
14.) Dallas Cowboys Mark Barron S Alabama 70
15.) Philadelphia Eagles Michael Brockers DT LSU 31
16.) New York Jets Courtney Upshaw DE Alabama 50
17.) Cincinnati Bengals Dre Kirkpatrick CB Alabama 40
18.) San Diego Chargers Cordy Glenn OT Georgia 23
19.) Chicago Bears Whitney Mercilus OLB Illinois 22
20.) Tennessee Titans Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina 28
21.) Cincinnati Bengals Kendall Wright WR Baylor 20
22.) Cleveland Browns Jonathan Martin OT Stanford 22
23.) Detroit Lions Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama 21
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama 70
25.) Denver Broncos Jerel Worthy DT Michigan State 29
26.) Houston Texans Stephen Hill WR Georgia Tech 45
27.) New England Patriots Nick Perry DE USC 26
28.) Green Bay Packers Shea McClellin OLB Boise State 38
29.) Baltimore Ravens Peter Konz C Wisconsin 49
30.) San Francisco 49ers Coby Fleener TE Stanford 36
31.) New England Patriots Harrison Smith S Notre Dame 18
32.) New York Giants Mike Adams OT Ohio State 28

 

There were obviously some flaws with this approach.  Namely, Dontari Poe did not end up going in the first round, which doesn't make much sense seeing that he was not taken in the 1st round in only 4.4% of the mocks.  This occurred mostly because of the large amount of variance for Poe among the mock drafts.  Taking a look at the players that are toughest to slot (those that appear in the largest number of different draft spots), we see that Poe is tied at the top of this list.  Being so spread out, he never appeared at the top spot for any draft position.

 

Player # Different Spots
Quinton Coples 21
Fletcher Cox 21
Michael Brockers 21
Cordy Glenn 21
Dontari Poe 21
Stephon Gilmore 20
Courtney Upshaw 19
Jonathan Martin 18
Nick Perry 18
Whitney Mercilus 18
Riley Reiff 17
Luke Kuechly 17
Michael Floyd 17
Dre Kirkpatrick 17
Melvin Ingram 16
Mark Barron 16
Kendall Wright 15
Dont'a Hightower 15
Mike Adams 15
Devon Still 15
Chandler Jones 15
David DeCastro 14
Peter Konz 14
Stephen Hill 14
Andre Branch 13
Justin Blackmon 12
Janoris Jenkins 11

 

Using Percent Undrafted (in the First Round) and Average Position

While this second study isn't a great way to determine the order of the first round, it gives a little bit of insight as to how the players rank.  In this case, players were first sorted by the percentage of times they did not appear in a mock (remember, these were the first round only).  They were then sorted by their average draft position for mocks in which they were taken.  You'll also find a high and low value, indicating the range for each player.

Again, this isn't a great way to predict the first round order, but it could give some insight into potential draft day trades should teams move up to grab their player.

Rank Player High Low Average Times Picked %Not in 1st Rd
1 Andrew Luck 1 2 1.01 158 0.0%
2 Robert Griffin III 1 2 1.99 158 0.0%
3 Matt Kalil 3 6 3.18 158 0.0%
4 Trent Richardson 3 17 4.47 158 0.0%
5 Morris Claiborne 3 14 5.14 158 0.0%
6 Justin Blackmon 3 19 6.33 158 0.0%
7 Melvin Ingram 5 26 11.11 158 0.0%
8 Riley Reiff 6 32 11.39 158 0.0%
9 Quinton Coples 7 32 12.96 158 0.0%
10 Luke Kuechly 5 29 13.07 158 0.0%
11 Michael Floyd 6 26 12.11 157 0.6%
12 David Decastro 7 23 13.85 156 1.3%
13 Ryan Tannehill 4 22 8.39 155 1.9%
14 Fletcher Cox 5 31 12.75 155 1.9%
15 Dre Kirkpatrick 5 30 19.07 155 1.9%
16 Mark Barron 8 31 17.21 153 3.2%
17 Michael Brockers 8 31 18.97 152 3.8%
18 Cordy Glenn 10 32 20.32 152 3.8%
19 Dontari Poe 6 31 15.59 151 4.4%
20 Courtney Upshaw 10 31 18.68 151 4.4%
21 Stephon Gilmore 7 32 19.04 148 6.3%
22 Kendall Wright 6 30 21.91 148 6.3%
23 Jonathan Martin 9 32 20.38 145 8.2%
24 Dont'a Hightower 12 32 25.38 138 12.7%
25 Nick Perry 7 32 24.10 132 16.5%
26 Whitney Mercilus 7 32 22.57 129 18.4%
27 Peter Konz 17 32 26.99 111 29.7%
28 Stephen Hill 16 32 25.94 109 31.0%
29 Mike Adams 13 32 25.89 102 35.4%
30 Coby Fleener 19 32 29.34 95 39.9%
31 Janoris Jenkins 14 31 24.85 78 50.6%
32 Devon Still 9 32 26.57 72 54.4%
33 Jerel Worthy 18 32 26.74 62 60.8%
34 Shea McClellin 15 31 27.48 62 60.8%
35 Chandler Jones 15 32 24.60 58 63.3%
36 Andre Branch 13 32 26.81 57 63.9%
37 Reuben Randle 18 32 26.82 38 75.9%
38 Dough Martin 21 32 28.58 31 80.4%
39 Harrison Smith 27 32 30.44 27 82.9%
40 Kevin Zeitler 24 32 29.54 26 83.5%
41 Kendall Reyes 25 32 29.67 21 86.7%
42 Brandon Weeden 15 31 22.39 18 88.6%
43 Amini Silatolu 18 32 27.50 16 89.9%
44 Alshon Jefferey 19 32 27.69 16 89.9%
45 Lamar Miller 17 32 26.13 15 90.5%
46 David Wilson 21 32 29.31 13 91.8%
47 Zach Brown 15 32 24.33 9 94.3%
48 Alfonzo Dennard 21 32 26.25 8 94.9%
49 Josh Robinson 20 31 25.83 6 96.2%
50 Bobby Massie 24 32 30.33 6 96.2%
51 Vinny Curry 7 28 23.80 5 96.8%
52 Mohamed Sanu 25 30 28.00 5 96.8%
53 Lavonte David 26 32 29.00 5 96.8%
54 Dwayne Allen 30 32 31.00 4 97.5%
55 Kelechi Osemele 19 32 24.67 3 98.1%
56 Jayron Hosley 31 32 31.33 3 98.1%
57 Bobby Wagner 29 29 29.00 2 98.7%
58 Jared Crick 28 31 29.50 2 98.7%
59 Brandon Boykin 23 23 23.00 1 99.4%
60 Brandon Thompson 24 24 24.00 1 99.4%
61 Billy Winny 28 28 28.00 1 99.4%
62 Bruce Irvin 29 29 29.00 1 99.4%
63 Mychal Kendricks 29 29 29.00 1 99.4%
64 James Brown 30 30 30.00 1 99.4%
65 Alameda Ta'amu 30 30 30.00 1 99.4%
66 Juron Criner 31 31 31.00 1 99.4%
67 Jamell Fleming 31 31 31.00 1 99.4%
68 Trumaine Johnson 31 31 31.00 1 99.4%
69 Derek Wolfe 31 31 31.00 1 99.4%
70 Chris Polk 32 32 32.00 1 99.4%
71 Zebrie Sanders 32 32 32.00 1 99.4%

 

Top 4 Picks for Each Team

I had a commenter request to see the top 4 picks for each team.  Below you'll find that, as well as the percentage of mocks in which that player was selected for that spot.

Team Pick 1 Pick 2 Pick 3 Pick 4
1.) Colts Andrew Luck (99.4%) Robert Griffin III (0.6%) x x
2.) Redskins Robert Griffin III (99.4%) Andrew Luck (0.6%) x x
3.) Vikings Matt Kalil (92.4%) Morris Claiborne (4.4%) Justin Blackmon (2.5%) Trent Richardson (0.6%)
4.) Browns Trent Richardson (78.5%) Justin Blackmon (8.2%) Ryan Tannehill (7.0%) Morris Claiborne (5.7%)
5.) Buccaneers Morris Claiborne (80.4%) Trent Richardson (12.7%) Matt Kalil (3.2%) Melvin Ingram (1.3%)
6.) Rams Justin Blackmon (69.0%) Fletcher Cox (12.0%) Trent Richardson (5.1%) Matt Kalil (3.8%)
7.) Jaguars Melvin Ingram (31.0%) Michael Floyd (24.1%) Quinton Coples (14.6%) Justin Blackmon (9.5%)
8.) Dolphins Ryan Tannehill (78.5%) Melvin Ingram (5.7%) Riley Reiff (5.1%) Quinton Coples (3.8%)
9.) Panthers Fletcher Cox (32.9%) Quinton Coples (14.6%) Dontari Poe (14.6%) Michael Brockers (9.5%)
10.) Bills Riley Reiff (57.0%) Michael Floyd (15.8%) Luke Kuechly (5.7%) Jonathan Martin (4.4%)
11.) Chiefs Luke Kuechly (28.5%) David DeCastro (27.2%) Dontari Poe (21.5%) Reiff/Tannehill (4.4%)
12.) Seahawks Luke Kuechly (26.6%) Quinton Coples (25.9%) Melvin Ingram (19.6%) David DeCastro (6.3%)
13.) Cardinals David DeCastro (20.9%) Riley Reiff (19.0%) Jonathan Martin (15.8%) Michael Floyd (13.3%)
14.) Cowboys Mark Barron (44.3%) Dontari Poe (12.0%) David DeCastro (9.5%) Dre Kirkpatrick (7.6%)
15.) Eagles Fletcher Cox (20.3%) Michael Brockers (19.6%) Dontari Poe (11.4%) Mark Barron (10.1%)
16.) Jets Courtney Upshaw (31.6%) Michael Floyd (14.6%) Melvin Ingram (13.9%) Mark Barron (5.7%)
17.) Bengals Dre Kirkpatrick (25.3%) David DeCastro (17.7%) Stephon Gilmore (15.2%) Mark Barron (5.7%)
18.) Chargers Courtney Upshaw (18.4%) Cordy Glenn (14.6%) Whitney Mercilus (11.4%) Nick Perry (11.4%)
19.) Bears Whitney Mercilus (13.9%) Jonathan Martin (12.7%) Glenn Cordy (10.8%) Quinton Coples (9.5%)
20.) Titans Dre Kirkpatrick (18.4%) Stephon Gilmore (17.7%) Peter Konz (8.9%) Michael Brockers (8.2%)
21.) Bengals Cordy Glenn (15.8%) Dre Kirkpatrick (14.6%) Kendall Wright (12.7%) Stephon Gilmore (8.9%)
22.) Browns Kendall Wright (32.9%) Jonathan Martin (13.9%) Brandon Weeden (9.5%) Stephen Hill (7.6%)
23.) Lions Jonathan Martin (16.5%) Dre Kirkpatrick (15.8%) Stephon Gilmore (15.2%) Janoris Jenkins (13.3%)
24.) Steelers Dont'a Hightower (44.3%) Dontari Poe (9.5%) Mike Adams (8.2%) Cordy Glenn (6.3%)
25.) Broncos Michael Brockers (26.6%) Jerel Worthy (18.4%) Devon Still (12.7%) Dontari Poe (6.3%)
26.) Texans Stephen Hill (28.5%) Kendall Wright (17.7%) Reuben Randle (12.0%) Nick Perry (7.6%)
27.) Patriots Nick Perry (16.5%) Whitney Mercilus (12.7%) Andre Branch (10.1%) Chandler Jones (10.1%)
28.) Packers Shea McClellin (24.1%) Nick Perry (14.6%) Andre Branch (8.9%) Peter Konz (8.2%)
29.) Ravens Peter Konz (31.0%) Dont'a Hightower (19.6%) Mike Adams (5.1%) Cordy Glenn (4.4%)
30.) 49ers Coby Fleener (22.8%) Stephen Hill (14.6%) Kevin Zeitler (11.4%) Peter Konz (5.7%)
31.) Patriots Janoris Jenkins (12.0%) Harrison Smith (11.4%) Devon Still (8.9%) Whitney Mercilus (7.0%)
32.) Giants Coby Fleener (23.4%) Mike Adams (17.7%) Doug Martin (10.1%) Jonathan Martin (6.3%)

Final Thoughts

I'll be interested to see how this plays out, namely the first mock that was presented based on player frequency at a certain draft spot.  The main challenge with predicting the first round revolves around the fact that it only takes one team to pick a player early, and then the whole thing gets screwed up.

If you have any other ideas with how to play with this data, I'd be interested to hear about them in the Comments.

 

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Comments

Enjoy this data. How about Giving percentages for each of top 32 picks. Maybe just top 3 if it gets too absurd.

I assume you mean instead of putting the number of times they were picked (like is there now), put the percentage of time they were picked in that slot? Or am I misunderstanding?

Sorry for the delay. Say pick #6= Blackmon 35%, Cox, 25%, Richardson 12%. Etc, etc. For all 32 picks.

That makes a lot of sense. I'll post that this evening.

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