The Saquatch Riddle: (aka The Other Fantasy Relevant Patriot WR)

Tenacious D fans will get the headline, but in truth, most fantasy geeks are trying to figure out which wideout (after Gronkowski of course) will emerge as the big fantasy value in the Willie Wonka Chocolate Factory of Fantasy Goodness that is the Patriot offense. We answer a few questions early in this paragraph: Will Tom Brady throw for 5k this year? YES. Will he also throw for at least 40 TDs? YES. We know Brady is already a fantasy value this year, coming off the board as the 3rd and sometimes 4th QB. This offense will try to establish itself as a running team in the red zone, but we all know in the end, the Pats love to score as many points as possible through the air, and pray to sweet baby J that their secondary doesn't allow 28 points a game this year. This is simply my take on how I feel the Pats WR scoring will hash out. Simple explanations that a Statmaster5000 is likely to shoot holes through. Be my guest, digest, and you do the rest...

 

Rob Gronkowski- He's the big cheese, the cat's pajamas, the ginormous doofus, anyway you slice it, he's the number one target. Gronk's 17 scores helped many of you win your league last year, and big things are expected despite coming off of arthroscopic surgery in February.  All reports out of camp point to Gronk looking heathy and ready to assume his dominance on the football field, and his douchiness off the field. I think the "Lloyd Factor" as our buddy once coined, will force most to assume that Gronk's record setting year is due for some regression in 2012. Not a huge drop mind you, but enough for me not to go bananas and draft him in round one.

Rummy's Projection- 83/1338/14 TDs. Total points in PPR: 300.8

 

Wes Welker- Disrespected? To the masses it would seem that way, but after Welker turned down the original contract offer from the Patriots, and subsequently (and bizarrely) signed his franchise tender, the writing was on the wall. The Pats were content in letting this year play out in their ever changing offense, and potentially tagging Wes again in 2013. That's a story for next spring.  In the meantime, Wes will gobble up catches like a fat kid on a bowl of M&Ms and be a solid fantasy option once again. My only caveat? Yep, that Lloyd fellow. I expect Welker returns to his early (and modest) TD totals, and remains a PPR monster. Some regression, but not a ton. Still enough to be the #2 scorer in this offense.

Rummy's Projection- 107/1326/5 TDs. Total points in PPR: 269.6

 

Brandon Lloyd- Factor in Josh McDaniels. Factor in that he's already impressing at camp with acrobatic catches. Factor in that he wants to be here, and that Brady has already gushed that he hopes he's here for a long time. There's a part of Brady that loves the TD record and would love to see Darrelle Revis twist in the wind on a deep route trying to cover Lloyd. That's why they brought him to Foxboro. Not to be a Moss clone, but to bring his sure handed skill set to the table and to force defenses to lengthen the field once again. Respect the deep ball. Lloyd is the sexy pickup at an absurd 6th round ADP in drafts, and if that holds, he's a steal. A #2WR with #1 upside.

Rummy's Projection- 70/1250/10 TDs. Total points in PPR: 255

 

Aaron Hernandez- Hernandez for all of his athletic freakish goodness, is a tough sell for me as the 3rd TE off the board (after Gronk & Graham). To me, his value is a little inflated, and he could be hurt the most by "The Lloyd Factor." Last year when nobody was buying Hernandez as a #2TE in this offense, I was advocating for his versatility in a big way, and even turned heads when I took him as a TE late in a few drafts. This year? He's the 3rd TE in almost every mock I've seen, and that's much too high. I still think he's a nice value if he tumbles a bit from the Lloyd hype, but if his ADP doesn't move much, I'll look elsewhere for a tight end...and likely several rounds later (think Fred Davis, Kyle Rudolph, & Tony Gonzalez. )

Rummy's Projection- 68/890/7 TDs. Total Points in PPR: 199

 

Jabar Gaffney- You might be asking yourself, "why not Deion?" Well, I'm of the thinking that Deion's days are numbered. Let us not forget, this is McD's system, and guys like Lloyd and Gaffney have a leg up, and Deion Branch is a step slow. While I don't recommend Gaffney as even a flex starter, if one of the "Big Four" were to go down, Gaffney has moved all around the board in McDaniel's offense, and could be a guy that could save your bacon for a week or two. Even in an offense with so many mouths to feed, Gaffney has some spot starter value. Just more of a wait and see proposition.

Rummy's Projection- 35/425/5 TDs. Total Points in PPR: 107.5 

 

Who do I recommend you target? Well, I think Welker obviously has great PPR value, but like Gronk, his numbers will regress a bit. At his current ADP though, I'd still take him as a WR1 in PPR without hesitation. I won't take a tight end in round one, so forget about Gronk, that's your baby if you want to change its diapers. I like Hernandez at the right price, but as the 3rd TE off the board, his ADP is too high when you consider he's being drafted a round or two higher than Antonio Gates, so don't bite. The real value is Lloyd, as long as his ADP sticks and you can get him as a solid #2 WR with plenty of upside, especially in the red zone. Gaffney is waiver wire material, but has value if someone gets dinged up.

 

 

The Sasquatch "Ridley?"

To continue my stupid theme of Sasquatch puns, I thought I would give you my two cents on the Patriot RB situation. To be perfectly honest? Wait. Watch the pre-season games closely, look at who's getting reps. Look at pass protection and for the love of all things holy, pay attention to who's holding onto the football. It worked for the pedestrian downhill running style of Benjarvus Green-Ellis. He was vanilla, but he never fumbled and he managed to vulture over 20 TDs over the last two years before NE let him walk in free agency.

Stevan Ridley- The front runner based on camp buzz and his ability to break off big plays when called upon last year. The caveats? Pass pro and ball security. If he can cure these ills, then Ridley has a vice grip on the job. Time will tell.

Shane Vereen- Drafted a round before his teammate Ridley, Vereen was clearly the more explosive of the two of of college, and it wasn't even close. All of that means dookie unless Vereen can truly step up and stay healthy in 2012 (in his rookie campaign, Vereen was hampered by injuries). He'll need to show explosiveness, an ability to pass protect, and play mistake free ball to leap frog Ridley on the depth chart.

Danny Woodhead- Workman-like, undersized, but reliable in the passing game. He's why the Patriots weren't worried as much when Faulk was sidelined by injuries last year, because he's a reasonable facsimile as a 3rd down back...but he's not a big difference maker. He's just a guy. His only chance is if the aforementioned Ridley and Vereen cease to put it all together in year two.

Brandon Bolden- The undrafted rookie out of Ole Miss (sound familiar?) has a decent shot to make the final cut and has been impressive in camp thus far. His value will come as a goal line back, and certainly is the biggest half back on the roster. He'll need a strong pre-season to avoid a taxi squad designation.