Week 7 Running Back Carries & Targets: The Special "Sell High" Edition

RB Targets | WR/TE Targets

 

It’s interesting to look at who is getting a lot of touches, as is typical of this column each week.  But it doesn’t always give justice to the little guys (literally).  For instance, Montario Hardesty had an absolutely ridiculous workload with 35 total touches (33 carries, 2 receptions).  What did it yield?  A mediocre 14.2 points.  Then you look at a guy like Darren Sproles with nearly half as many touches (12 carries, 6 receptions) who scores more than twice as many points with 27.6. 

The main point here is not to overvalue a guy like Montario Hardesty.  Sell high?  Certainly, if anyone is buying.  Peyton Hillis will be back, albeit not in the same capacity he was in 2010.  Best case for Hardesty is a 50/50 split once Hillis returns.  Averaging only 3.3ypc on the year (2.9ypc in week 7), don't hesitate to dangle him and one of your WR2/3 types to bring back a RB1/WR1 player.  I can’t promise it will work, but it’s worth trying to move Hardesty while his value is higher than ever. 

Here’s a look at the rest of the target winners and losers from week 7.

 

Heroes

• Once again a permanent fixture at the top of this list, Arian Foster continues to reward his patient owners.  If you failed to buy low early this season, he’s going to be impossible to acquire going forward.
• This Demarco Murray outbreak came out of nowhere, and he has confirmed that the St. Louis Rams are once again the worst team in the league.  Make your case for Indianapolis, but this Rams team is just atrocious.  Giving up 33 more rushing yards per game than the next nearest team, any running back is worth starting against them.  Yes, even Marshawn Lynch, who still will see the Rams twice.  Anyway, Demarco Murray is good, but he’s not anywhere near this good.  He’s earned a bigger role in the offense, but what will that be when Felix Jones gets back?  Maybe 10-12 carries a game?  As Jeff Brubach pointed out in this week’s “Hot Garbage Waiver Wire” article, he’s a definitely worth dangling out there to see what your running back needy league mates might offer up, but not yet.  With a matchup against an Eagles porous run defense in week 8, Murray’s value will only increase.
• Who lit the fire under Shonn Greene?  Though he didn’t manage to find the endzone, he had his best game on the season running the ball with 20 carries for 112 yards (5.6ypc).  His previous best average  was a measly 4.0.
• Don’t try to argue, because you’ll just embarrass yourself: Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the game.  Sometimes you would think Leslie Frazier is the only one that doesn’t realize this.  Fortunately, he got the talented back the ball 24 plus times.  Despite the losing effort, AP blew up for 175 yards and a touchdown.
• After Earnest Graham went down (and was subsequently lost for the season), Kregg Lumpkin garnered 8 carries and another 8 targets in the passing game.  The bad news is that he only had 15 yards rushing on those 8 carries, so don’t go crazy trying to add him.  What will his value be going forward?  The Bucs have a week 8 bye, and it would be an upset if LeGarrette Blount weren’t back by week 9, leaving Lumpkin around for some 3^rd down duties.  That’s hard to get excited about.
• Once again Jonathan Stewart outplayed DeAngelo Williams.  Stewart saw 14 carries to Williams’ 10, and converted a 2-yard goal line carry for some pay dirt. I would move forward with Stewart as a decent flex play.

Zeroes

• There’s just nothing you can do with Chris Johnson anymore.  You try to trade him, his value is in the gutter.  You start him, he posts a 1.8ypc on 10 touches.  Though he did sort of save the day in PPR leagues with 6 catches for 27 yards, it’s clear that he’s just a shadow of his old self at this point.  If he can’t get it done next week against Indy, there’s truly no hope.
• Daniel Thomas did manage 24 looks in week 7, but that kind of workload should most certainly produce more than 7.3 PPR points.
• Way to still be irrelevant, Tashard Choice.  It was though that he would some of the workload with Murray--Choice saw 2 carries.  One of the most overrated fantasy running backs to never do anything, it is now time to cut him forever people.
• Thanks, Pete Carroll.  I’ll be honest, I hate Marshawn Lynch, but to announce after the game has already started that he’s going to be out?  Bush league.
• There are a bunch of other running backs I could mention here that killed fantasy teams because of injuries, but I’ll let McFadden, Wells, and Graham off the hook...jerks.
• I don’t know who to be more angry with, Ryan Torain or Mike Shanahan.  After not seeing a carry last week, Shanahan gave Tim Hightower a huge workload.  He subsequently suffered an torn ACL, but Ryan Torain couldn’t get out of negative fantasy point land. As much as this burns, Torain will still be subject to some decent fantasy games, especially with Hightower out.  Don’t count out Helu either though in a backfield that you’re better off staying away from if at all possible.
• John Kuhn should be forbidden from scoring touchdowns. 
  
  Sincerely,
  
  Every fantasy player who owns at least one Packer.
   
• In a game I thought we’d see LaDainian Tomlinson play out of his mind against his former Chargers' team, he was pretty much outplayed by Shonn Greene and a non-factor fantasy wise with only 9 looks.  If you’re forced to play him going forward, you better say your prayers the night before.

 

Rank	Player	CAR	REC	TGTS	CAR+TGTS
1	Montario Hardesty, CLE	33	2	2	35
2	Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX	30	2	3	33
3	Arian Foster, HOU	25	5	5	30
4	Matt Forte, CHI	25	2	4	29
5	Michael Turner, ATL	27	0	1	28
6	Demarco Murray, DAL	25	0	2	27
7	Adrian Peterson, MIN	24	1	1	25
8	Daniel Thomas, MIA	19	2	5	24
9	Steven Jackson, STL	18	4	5	23
10	Shonn Greene, NYJ	20	1	1	21
11	Michael Bush, OAK	17	2	3	20
12	Darren Sproles, NO	12	6	6	18
12	Ryan Mathews, SD	13	4	5	18
12	Tim Hightower, WAS	17	0	1	18
12	Willis McGahee, DEN	18	0	0	18
16	James Starks, GB	13	3	4	17
17	Chris Johnson, TEN	10	6	6	16
17	Jackie Battle , KC	16	0	0	16
17	Kregg Lumpkin, TB	8	6	8	16
17	Pierre Thomas, NO	10	5	6	16
17	Ray Rice, BAL	8	5	8	16
22	Ben Tate, HOU	15	0	0	15
22	Mark Ingram, NO	14	1	1	15
22	Rashard Mendenhall, PIT	13	1	2	15
25	Jonathan Stewart, CAR	14	0	0	14
26	Maurice Morris , DET	9	2	4	13
27	Beanie Wells, ARI	12	0	0	12
27	Dexter McCluster, KC	10	1	2	12
27	Mike Tolbert, SD	11	0	1	12
27	Reggie Bush, MIA	10	2	2	12
31	Leon Washington , SEA	7	4	4	11
32	DeAngelo Williams, CAR	10	0	0	10
32	Delone Carter, IND	10	0	0	10
34	Donald Brown, IND	9	0	0	9
34	Justin Forsett, SEA	8	0	1	9
34	Keiland Williams , DET	9	0	0	9
34	Knowshon Moreno, DEN	7	2	2	9
34	LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ	5	3	4	9
34	Ryan Grant, GB	9	0	0	9
34	Thomas Jones, KC	9	0	0	9
41	Chris Ogbonnaya, CLE	3	5	5	8
41	Isaac Redman, PIT	6	2	2	8
43	Deji Karim, JAX	7	0	0	7
43	Marion Barber, CHI	6	0	1	7
45	Lance Ball , DEN	6	0	0	6
45	Mewelde Moore , PIT	6	0	0	6
45	Phillip Tanner, DAL	6	0	0	6
48	Alfonso Smith, ARI	5	0	0	5
48	Derrick Ward , HOU	5	0	0	5
48	Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL	1	3	4	5
48	Taiwan Jones, OAK	3	1	2	5
52	Javon Ringer, TEN	3	1	1	4
52	Joseph Addai, IND	2	2	2	4
54	Ahmard Hall , TEN	0	0	3	3
54	Cadillac Williams, STL	2	1	1	3
54	Darren McFadden, OAK	2	1	1	3
54	Earnest Graham , TB	2	1	1	3
54	Jerome Felton, CAR	2	1	1	3
54	Joe McKnight, NYJ	3	0	0	3
54	Larod Stephens-Howling, ARI	0	2	3	3
54	Le'Ron McClain, KC	1	1	2	3
54	Ricky Williams, BAL	3	0	0	3
54	Roy Helu, WAS	1	2	2	3
64	John Kuhn , GB	1	1	1	2
64	Lorenzo Booker, MIN	0	0	2	2
64	Michael Robinson , SEA	0	0	2	2
64	Ovie Mughelli, ATL	0	1	2	2
64	Ryan Torain, WAS	2	0	0	2
64	Tashard Choice, DAL	2	0	0	2
64	Tyler Clutts, CHI	0	2	2	2
64	Vonta Leach, BAL	1	1	1	2
72	Anthony Sherman, ARI	0	1	1	1
72	Charles Clay, MIA	0	1	1	1
72	Greg Jones, JAX	0	0	1	1
72	Jacob Hester , SD	0	0	1	1
72	Jason Snelling, ATL	0	1	1	1
72	Jed Collins, NO	1	0	0	1
72	Lawrence Vickers , CLE	1	0	0	1
72	Manese Tonga, OAK	0	1	1	1
72	Spencer Larsen, DEN	0	1	1	1
72	Toby Gerhart, MIN	1	0	0	1
72	Ryan D'Imperio, MIN	0	0	1	1