Rummy's Way Too Early 2013 NFL Mock Draft (Round1)
Submitted by John on Sun, 01/27/2013 - 8:09am
It's that time of year again, when fans of eliminated playoff teams (like me) turn their focus to the 2013 Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, and eventually the 2013 NFL Draft in April. Either you love it or you hate it, but you can't ignore it, because it's everywhere. If you're a fantasy geek, it's the earliest dynasty scouting you can do, and an important part of keeping up and ahead of the Joneses. Here's my absurdly early take, and keep in mind this is how I think they'll draft, not how I think they should.
1. Chiefs - Tyler Wilson, QB Arkansas
2. Jaguars - Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
3. Raiders - Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
4. Eagles - Luke Joeckel, OT Texas A & M
5. Lions - Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
6. Browns - Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB LSU
7. Cardinals - Matt Barkley, QB USC
8. Buffalo - Mike Glennon, QB NC State
Four QBs in the first 8 picks? Have you lost your mind, Rummy?! Calm down, this is the first mock of the season. Tyler Wilson leads the pack as the safest NFL ready QB pick for Andy Reid, who'll likely either extend LT Branden Albert or address the position via free agency (Jake Long?). Jags new HC Gus Bradley takes a page from his old team Seattle, and drafts a dynamic playmaker and leader in Geno Smith and moves on from Blaine Gabbert. The Raiders are getting old on their interior DL, and Lotulelei is the kind of plug and play space eater that's a slam dunk pick. New Eagles HC, Chip Kelly, will look to ensure his OL is ready for the uptempo rhythm of his kinetic offense. Joeckel helps out right away, and is experienced in a similar offense at Texas A & M, blocking for waterbug QB Johnny Manziel and the athletic Ryan Tannehill previously. The Lions could use OT help right away, but equally important, an upgrade at CB. Dee Milliner is the most complete CB on the board, and could make life easier for their stout DL to get to the QB. The Browns add another much needed pass rusher in the versatile Mingo, who can move in and out of the 3-4 as a DE/OLB hybrid for new DC Ray Horton. Cardinals new HC Bruce Arians knows the importance of finding his QB of the future, and while Matt Barkley may have slipped somewhat down draft boards, he's an upgrade over the scrub rodeo they currently have rostered. I round out the top 8 with new HC Doug Marrone bringing in the best QB available at this point in Glennon, a big armed, albeit unpolished prospect to compete with the underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick.
9. Jets - Ezekial Ansah, DE BYU
10. Titans - Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas
11. Chargers - Eric Fisher, OT Eastern Michigan
12. Miami - Bjoern Werner, DE FSU
13. Buccaneers - Johnthan Banks, CB Mississippi State
14. Panthers - Sheldon Richardson, DT Mizzou
15. Saints - Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
16. Rams - Arthur Brown, LB Kansas St.
17. Steelers - Manti Te'o, LB Notre Dame
18. Cowboys - Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
Even at this point, it would be a huge reach for the Jets to take a QB, so they'll wait and look to embolden their pass rush with the uber-talented Ansah, in lieu of potentially trading Darrelle Revis to the highest bidder. Vaccaro addresses an immediate need for an otherwise talented Titan defense, and helps solidify their weakish secondary. Philip Rivers is a pocket passer, and you need protection to survive in this world of mobile QBs. Eric Fisher is big and nasty and is arguably the best OT in the Draft--a steal at #11. The Dolphins need offensive playmakers, but it's a bit of a reach to take the best WR on the board. The Phins opt to instead take the versatile Werner to pair with Cam Wake, and create a pair of scary pass rushing bookends. When Greg Schiano traded Aqib Talib to NE, folks scratched their heads, but now it means they need to address the position early in the Draft, and Banks is the 1b to Millner's 1a. Easy call. The Panthers were a sieve up front, even with solid LB play from Luke Kuechly. Adding a plugging type 4-3 DT is key and Richardson fits that bill. The Saints parted ways with Steve Spagnuolo, and will return to a 3-4 base defense in 2013. Drafting pass rushers became priority number one, and Jones (a moderate health risk), could be a huge value if he's able to play at a high level with spinal stenosis diagnosis. The Rams continue to fill out their 4-3 defense under Jeff Fisher, and the best player available is the talented Arthur Brown. The bizarro personal life of Manti Te'o may have hurt his chances of being a top ten pick, but it won't stop a team with a tremendous foundation like the Steelers from adding a solid LB to their aging corps. That could allow Larry Foote to walk via FA. The Cowboys take big Lane Johnson to upgrade their OL over human turnstile Doug Free. Easy pick, and a strong value.
19. Giants - Dion Jordan DE, Oregon
20. Bears - Alec Ogletree LB, Georgia
21. Bengals - Damontre Moore OLB, Texas A & M
22. Rams (from Washington Redskins) - Cordarelle Patterson WR, Tennessee
23. Vikings - Keenan Allen, WR Cal
24. Colts - Khaseem Greene, LB Rutgers
25. Seahawks - Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
26. Packers - Zach Ertz, TE Stanford
Jerry Reese is the Morgan Freeman of GMs, but instead of collecting bones, he collects pass rushers. Jordan is an immense long limbed talent that can create havoc with Jason Pierre Paul off the edge. The Bears are getting long in the teefus at LB, so a guy like Ogletree can contribute right away with Urlacher's future uncertain. Moore is a great fit with Mike Zimmer's aggressive defense, and addresses a need on a defense without many holes. The Rams 2nd pick (from WAS) addresses a long standing need, finding explosive WR talent. Givens, Quick and a banged up Amendola didn't make much hay last year, so keep trying till you get it right I guess. Speaking of WR needs, the Vikings have been squeaking about Percy Harvin not being happy, so finding viable WR help is priority number one. Keenan Allen is a big play WR, and hopefully Christian Ponder will tape a cheetah to his arm to get the ball downfield to him. Khaseem Greene is an undersized, sideline to sideline playmaker. Sound familiar? Chuck Pagano remembers what it was like to have a guy like Ray Lewis roaming the middle of the field, and Greene is a plug and play LB in the mold of Luke Kuechly. He's just productive, and you can't turn your nose up at production. Tavon Austin? Yep. Russ Wilson has a lot of "just guys" at WR. Imagine if he has an explosive weapon like Austin to move all around the field and give defensive coordinators headaches? Scary. No Greg Jennings? No problem. Rather than reach for a WR, the Pack take a page out of the mismatch playbook, and add a big pass catching TE in Ertz, who many call a better prospect than former teammate Coby Fleener, and a huge (6'-6") target for Aaron Rodgers in the red zone.
27. Broncos - Xavier Rhodes, CB FSU
28. Texans - Chance Warmack, G Alabama
29. Patriots - D. J. Swearinger, S South Carolina
30. Falcons - Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
31. Ravens - Sam Montgomerey, DE LSU
32. Niners - Jonathan Cyprien, S FIU
The Broncos secondary got torched in the playoffs, so adding depth at the position is key. Champ Bailey didn't look like his old self...rather just old, and underwhelming Tracy Porter is set to be a FA. The Texans could use OT help, but were equally stymied in the playoffs on the interior OL. Warmack is NFL ready and is physically a great fit for the zone blocking scheme. Welp, another playoff loss, and the Pats show their Achilles heel against TE Dennis Pitta and getting burnt once again by Torrey Smith. The answer? A safety to pair with Devin McCourty that can play press if needed, and not get punked by a TE over the middle. Swearinger is that guy. Gonzo is "gonzo?" No problemo, enter big Tyler Eifert to snare those third and eights for Matt Ryan. The Ravens could use a Ray Lewis safety net, but any ILB at this spot would be a reach, so enter best player available, Sam Montgomerey. A solid DE in a high energy defense at LSU, a very easy fit. Dashon Goldson is set to be a FA, and it would behoove the Niners to not overpay the sometime freelancing safety. Enter Senior Bowl darling, Cyprien. A great nose for the football, his technically sound skill set will be right at home at "The Stick."
That wraps up Mock 1.0, send death threats or sweet high fives my way via twitter @RumfordJohnny. Cheers!
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