2012 Consensus NFL Mock Draft: Compiling Results From 158 Mocks

Update 4/24

You'll now see a new table near the bottom that shows the top 4 picks for each team.  A commenter requested it, and it gives some more insight into what each team "may" be thinking.

 

Overview

With draft season upon us, I decided to take a new look at how the 2012 NFL Draft could shape up.  Thanks to a mock draft database that I stumbled upon, and some generous Twitter followers sending in their mocks, I was able to compile 158 mock drafts in total in an effort to find a consensus mock draft.  It's worth noting that this only looks at the first round results for each mock, and only mocks dated later than April 1st were used.

 

Player Frequency at a Given Draft Spot

I decided that it would be interesting to look at a couple of different scenarios.  The first scenario slots a player into a draft spot simply based on the number of times he was selected for that spot among the 158 mocks.  For example, Andrew Luck was picked for the first spot 157 total times, while Robert Griffin III was only picked for the first spot 1 time.  Therefore, Luck emerged as the top pick.  In some cases, the player that appeared the most in a certain draft spot was already off the board, thus the player with the next highest total for that spot was selected.

Without describing all of the gorey details, here are the results.

Pick	Player	POS	College	#times
1.) Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	QB	Stanford	157
2.) Washington Redskins	Robert Griffin III	QB	Baylor	157
3.) Minnesota Vikings	Matt Kalil	OT	USC	146
4.) Cleveland Browns	Trent Richardson	RB	Alabama	124
5.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Morris Claiborne	CB	LSU	127
6.) St. Louis Rams	Justin Blackmon	WR	Oklahoma State	109
7.) Jacksonville Jaguars	Melvin Ingram	OLB	South Carolina	49
8.) Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	QB	Texas A&M	124
9.) Carolina Panthers	Fletcher Cox	DT	Mississippi State	52
10.) Buffalo Bills	Riley Reiff	OT	Iowa	90
11.) Kansas City Chiefs	Luke Kuechly	LB	Boston College	45
12.) Seattle Seahawks	Quinton Coples	DE	North Carolina	41
13.) Arizona Cardinals	David DeCastro	OG	Stanford	33
14.) Dallas Cowboys	Mark Barron	S	Alabama	70
15.) Philadelphia Eagles	Michael Brockers	DT	LSU	31
16.) New York Jets	Courtney Upshaw	DE	Alabama	50
17.) Cincinnati Bengals	Dre Kirkpatrick	CB	Alabama	40
18.) San Diego Chargers	Cordy Glenn	OT	Georgia	23
19.) Chicago Bears	Whitney Mercilus	OLB	Illinois	22
20.) Tennessee Titans	Stephon Gilmore	CB	South Carolina	28
21.) Cincinnati Bengals	Kendall Wright	WR	Baylor	20
22.) Cleveland Browns	Jonathan Martin	OT	Stanford	22
23.) Detroit Lions	Janoris Jenkins	CB	North Alabama	21
24.) Pittsburgh Steelers	Dont'a Hightower	LB	Alabama	70
25.) Denver Broncos	Jerel Worthy	DT	Michigan State	29
26.) Houston Texans	Stephen Hill	WR	Georgia Tech	45
27.) New England Patriots	Nick Perry	DE	USC	26
28.) Green Bay Packers	Shea McClellin	OLB	Boise State	38
29.) Baltimore Ravens	Peter Konz	C	Wisconsin	49
30.) San Francisco 49ers	Coby Fleener	TE	Stanford	36
31.) New England Patriots	Harrison Smith	S	Notre Dame	18
32.) New York Giants	Mike Adams	OT	Ohio State	28

 

There were obviously some flaws with this approach.  Namely, Dontari Poe did not end up going in the first round, which doesn't make much sense seeing that he was not taken in the 1st round in only 4.4% of the mocks.  This occurred mostly because of the large amount of variance for Poe among the mock drafts.  Taking a look at the players that are toughest to slot (those that appear in the largest number of different draft spots), we see that Poe is tied at the top of this list.  Being so spread out, he never appeared at the top spot for any draft position.

 

Player	# Different Spots
Quinton Coples	21
Fletcher Cox	21
Michael Brockers	21
Cordy Glenn	21
Dontari Poe	21
Stephon Gilmore	20
Courtney Upshaw	19
Jonathan Martin	18
Nick Perry	18
Whitney Mercilus	18
Riley Reiff	17
Luke Kuechly	17
Michael Floyd	17
Dre Kirkpatrick	17
Melvin Ingram	16
Mark Barron	16
Kendall Wright	15
Dont'a Hightower	15
Mike Adams	15
Devon Still	15
Chandler Jones	15
David DeCastro	14
Peter Konz	14
Stephen Hill	14
Andre Branch	13
Justin Blackmon	12
Janoris Jenkins	11

 

Using Percent Undrafted (in the First Round) and Average Position

While this second study isn't a great way to determine the order of the first round, it gives a little bit of insight as to how the players rank.  In this case, players were first sorted by the percentage of times they did not appear in a mock (remember, these were the first round only).  They were then sorted by their average draft position for mocks in which they were taken.  You'll also find a high and low value, indicating the range for each player.

Again, this isn't a great way to predict the first round order, but it could give some insight into potential draft day trades should teams move up to grab their player.

Rank	Player	High	Low	Average	Times Picked	%Not in 1st Rd
1	Andrew Luck	1	2	1.01	158	0.0%
2	Robert Griffin III	1	2	1.99	158	0.0%
3	Matt Kalil	3	6	3.18	158	0.0%
4	Trent Richardson	3	17	4.47	158	0.0%
5	Morris Claiborne	3	14	5.14	158	0.0%
6	Justin Blackmon	3	19	6.33	158	0.0%
7	Melvin Ingram	5	26	11.11	158	0.0%
8	Riley Reiff	6	32	11.39	158	0.0%
9	Quinton Coples	7	32	12.96	158	0.0%
10	Luke Kuechly	5	29	13.07	158	0.0%
11	Michael Floyd	6	26	12.11	157	0.6%
12	David Decastro	7	23	13.85	156	1.3%
13	Ryan Tannehill	4	22	8.39	155	1.9%
14	Fletcher Cox	5	31	12.75	155	1.9%
15	Dre Kirkpatrick	5	30	19.07	155	1.9%
16	Mark Barron	8	31	17.21	153	3.2%
17	Michael Brockers	8	31	18.97	152	3.8%
18	Cordy Glenn	10	32	20.32	152	3.8%
19	Dontari Poe	6	31	15.59	151	4.4%
20	Courtney Upshaw	10	31	18.68	151	4.4%
21	Stephon Gilmore	7	32	19.04	148	6.3%
22	Kendall Wright	6	30	21.91	148	6.3%
23	Jonathan Martin	9	32	20.38	145	8.2%
24	Dont'a Hightower	12	32	25.38	138	12.7%
25	Nick Perry	7	32	24.10	132	16.5%
26	Whitney Mercilus	7	32	22.57	129	18.4%
27	Peter Konz	17	32	26.99	111	29.7%
28	Stephen Hill	16	32	25.94	109	31.0%
29	Mike Adams	13	32	25.89	102	35.4%
30	Coby Fleener	19	32	29.34	95	39.9%
31	Janoris Jenkins	14	31	24.85	78	50.6%
32	Devon Still	9	32	26.57	72	54.4%
33	Jerel Worthy	18	32	26.74	62	60.8%
34	Shea McClellin	15	31	27.48	62	60.8%
35	Chandler Jones	15	32	24.60	58	63.3%
36	Andre Branch	13	32	26.81	57	63.9%
37	Reuben Randle	18	32	26.82	38	75.9%
38	Dough Martin	21	32	28.58	31	80.4%
39	Harrison Smith	27	32	30.44	27	82.9%
40	Kevin Zeitler	24	32	29.54	26	83.5%
41	Kendall Reyes	25	32	29.67	21	86.7%
42	Brandon Weeden	15	31	22.39	18	88.6%
43	Amini Silatolu	18	32	27.50	16	89.9%
44	Alshon Jefferey	19	32	27.69	16	89.9%
45	Lamar Miller	17	32	26.13	15	90.5%
46	David Wilson	21	32	29.31	13	91.8%
47	Zach Brown	15	32	24.33	9	94.3%
48	Alfonzo Dennard	21	32	26.25	8	94.9%
49	Josh Robinson	20	31	25.83	6	96.2%
50	Bobby Massie	24	32	30.33	6	96.2%
51	Vinny Curry	7	28	23.80	5	96.8%
52	Mohamed Sanu	25	30	28.00	5	96.8%
53	Lavonte David	26	32	29.00	5	96.8%
54	Dwayne Allen	30	32	31.00	4	97.5%
55	Kelechi Osemele	19	32	24.67	3	98.1%
56	Jayron Hosley	31	32	31.33	3	98.1%
57	Bobby Wagner	29	29	29.00	2	98.7%
58	Jared Crick	28	31	29.50	2	98.7%
59	Brandon Boykin	23	23	23.00	1	99.4%
60	Brandon Thompson	24	24	24.00	1	99.4%
61	Billy Winny	28	28	28.00	1	99.4%
62	Bruce Irvin	29	29	29.00	1	99.4%
63	Mychal Kendricks	29	29	29.00	1	99.4%
64	James Brown	30	30	30.00	1	99.4%
65	Alameda Ta'amu	30	30	30.00	1	99.4%
66	Juron Criner	31	31	31.00	1	99.4%
67	Jamell Fleming	31	31	31.00	1	99.4%
68	Trumaine Johnson	31	31	31.00	1	99.4%
69	Derek Wolfe	31	31	31.00	1	99.4%
70	Chris Polk	32	32	32.00	1	99.4%
71	Zebrie Sanders	32	32	32.00	1	99.4%

 

Top 4 Picks for Each Team

I had a commenter request to see the top 4 picks for each team.  Below you'll find that, as well as the percentage of mocks in which that player was selected for that spot.

Team	Pick 1	Pick 2	Pick 3	Pick 4
1.) Colts	Andrew Luck (99.4%)	Robert Griffin III (0.6%)	x	x
2.) Redskins	Robert Griffin III (99.4%)	Andrew Luck (0.6%)	x	x
3.) Vikings	Matt Kalil (92.4%)	Morris Claiborne (4.4%)	Justin Blackmon (2.5%)	Trent Richardson (0.6%)
4.) Browns	Trent Richardson (78.5%)	Justin Blackmon (8.2%)	Ryan Tannehill (7.0%)	Morris Claiborne (5.7%)
5.) Buccaneers	Morris Claiborne (80.4%)	Trent Richardson (12.7%)	Matt Kalil (3.2%)	Melvin Ingram (1.3%)
6.) Rams	Justin Blackmon (69.0%)	Fletcher Cox (12.0%)	Trent Richardson (5.1%)	Matt Kalil (3.8%)
7.) Jaguars	Melvin Ingram (31.0%)	Michael Floyd (24.1%)	Quinton Coples (14.6%)	Justin Blackmon (9.5%)
8.) Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill (78.5%)	Melvin Ingram (5.7%)	Riley Reiff (5.1%)	Quinton Coples (3.8%)
9.) Panthers	Fletcher Cox (32.9%)	Quinton Coples (14.6%)	Dontari Poe (14.6%)	Michael Brockers (9.5%)
10.) Bills	Riley Reiff (57.0%)	Michael Floyd (15.8%)	Luke Kuechly (5.7%)	Jonathan Martin (4.4%)
11.) Chiefs	Luke Kuechly (28.5%)	David DeCastro (27.2%)	Dontari Poe (21.5%)	Reiff/Tannehill (4.4%)
12.) Seahawks	Luke Kuechly (26.6%)	Quinton Coples (25.9%)	Melvin Ingram (19.6%)	David DeCastro (6.3%)
13.) Cardinals	David DeCastro (20.9%)	Riley Reiff (19.0%)	Jonathan Martin (15.8%)	Michael Floyd (13.3%)
14.) Cowboys	Mark Barron (44.3%)	Dontari Poe (12.0%)	David DeCastro (9.5%)	Dre Kirkpatrick (7.6%)
15.) Eagles	Fletcher Cox (20.3%)	Michael Brockers (19.6%)	Dontari Poe (11.4%)	Mark Barron (10.1%)
16.) Jets	Courtney Upshaw (31.6%)	Michael Floyd (14.6%)	Melvin Ingram (13.9%)	Mark Barron (5.7%)
17.) Bengals	Dre Kirkpatrick (25.3%)	David DeCastro (17.7%)	Stephon Gilmore (15.2%)	Mark Barron (5.7%)
18.) Chargers	Courtney Upshaw (18.4%)	Cordy Glenn (14.6%)	Whitney Mercilus (11.4%)	Nick Perry (11.4%)
19.) Bears	Whitney Mercilus (13.9%)	Jonathan Martin (12.7%)	Glenn Cordy (10.8%)	Quinton Coples (9.5%)
20.) Titans	Dre Kirkpatrick (18.4%)	Stephon Gilmore (17.7%)	Peter Konz (8.9%)	Michael Brockers (8.2%)
21.) Bengals	Cordy Glenn (15.8%)	Dre Kirkpatrick (14.6%)	Kendall Wright (12.7%)	Stephon Gilmore (8.9%)
22.) Browns	Kendall Wright (32.9%)	Jonathan Martin (13.9%)	Brandon Weeden (9.5%)	Stephen Hill (7.6%)
23.) Lions	Jonathan Martin (16.5%)	Dre Kirkpatrick (15.8%)	Stephon Gilmore (15.2%)	Janoris Jenkins (13.3%)
24.) Steelers	Dont'a Hightower (44.3%)	Dontari Poe (9.5%)	Mike Adams (8.2%)	Cordy Glenn (6.3%)
25.) Broncos	Michael Brockers (26.6%)	Jerel Worthy (18.4%)	Devon Still (12.7%)	Dontari Poe (6.3%)
26.) Texans	Stephen Hill (28.5%)	Kendall Wright (17.7%)	Reuben Randle (12.0%)	Nick Perry (7.6%)
27.) Patriots	Nick Perry (16.5%)	Whitney Mercilus (12.7%)	Andre Branch (10.1%)	Chandler Jones (10.1%)
28.) Packers	Shea McClellin (24.1%)	Nick Perry (14.6%)	Andre Branch (8.9%)	Peter Konz (8.2%)
29.) Ravens	Peter Konz (31.0%)	Dont'a Hightower (19.6%)	Mike Adams (5.1%)	Cordy Glenn (4.4%)
30.) 49ers	Coby Fleener (22.8%)	Stephen Hill (14.6%)	Kevin Zeitler (11.4%)	Peter Konz (5.7%)
31.) Patriots	Janoris Jenkins (12.0%)	Harrison Smith (11.4%)	Devon Still (8.9%)	Whitney Mercilus (7.0%)
32.) Giants	Coby Fleener (23.4%)	Mike Adams (17.7%)	Doug Martin (10.1%)	Jonathan Martin (6.3%)

Final Thoughts

I'll be interested to see how this plays out, namely the first mock that was presented based on player frequency at a certain draft spot.  The main challenge with predicting the first round revolves around the fact that it only takes one team to pick a player early, and then the whole thing gets screwed up.

If you have any other ideas with how to play with this data, I'd be interested to hear about them in the Comments.

 

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